The Tri-Spectral Forecast indicator and drawing tool for NinjaTrader 8
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The Tri-Spectral forecast indicator displays historic seasonal analysis in a rapid and precise manner giving you a simple indication of when a cycle pattern exists
This indicator for NinjaTrader 8 saves a huge amount of time when performing annual cycle analysis research in of markets in a fully configurable format
Indroduction and concepts of the Tri-Spectral
Forecast tool for NinjaTrader 8
The problem of making decisions is
one that faces traders every time we look at the screen. Should we
buy or should we sell or should we avoid?
Sometimes there
might be room on your account for five long trades but there are
nine promising markets staring you in the face.
How to
screen and filter these out to increase the probability of winning?
The solution to improving your
probability of getting these difficult choices made is right here
Introducing the
Tri-Spectral Forecast Tool: Uncover Powerful Insights for your
Trading by analyzing historical data, this tool provides valuable
insights into future price movements.
With a simple and
intuitive interface, the Tri-Spectral Forecast tool takes today's
date, delves back 251 bars to examine last year's market behavior,
and projects it into the future.
This easy-to-interpret
visual representation offers a wealth of information.
By
incorporating this tool into your trading strategy, you gain a
significant advantage over your peers.
It helps prevent costly
trading mistakes and validates profitable opportunities. For
instance, if a friend considers buying Apple stock at the end of
August, you can utilize the cyclical evidence
from historical
analysis to guide them towards more informed decisions.
Designed and now available specifically for NinjaTrader 8, this
forecasting tool saves you from potential errors and guides you
towards more successful trades.
Utilize the Tri-Spectral Forecast
tool to confirm your trades and gain insights from firm cycles, such
as director sales patterns following annual company results
announcements.
Unlock the power of the Tri-Spectral Forecast
tool today and take your trading to new heights. Make informed
decisions, trade with confidence, and maximize your potential for
success.
Lets
get started, how it works and the simple interpretation
After adding the drawing tool to the Apple stock chart below,
very clearly and without any counting, jotting notes or maths it can
easily be seen there is a clear cyclical history of a rising
market
from this time of year going forward.
The yellow plot is
last year (drawn on the chart and plotted into the future) by the
number of "future" bars you choose.
The white plot is two years
ago and red is three years ago.
This
forecasting tool for NinjaTrader 8 can save a lot of errors as
certainly some traders would be looking to short Apple as it nears
resistance, the forecast below might change their mind.
Using this price forecasting tool to confirm trades solves the
problems. In some cases where there is concrete evidence of a
solid and predicatable cycle such as director sales after
announcing the company
results, a lot of your previously unseen opportunites are revealed
and your time is saved.
The Tri-Spectral forecast tool also reveals notable sell-offs
in Apple occurring in late August and early September. Now the planning of
trade entries and exits becomes much clearer.
Brief tutorial video from Labour day observations on Sept 2nd 2024 -
Features PayPal holdings, 3M, Nike, Goldman Sachs, etc
How to set up your Tri-Spectral
Forecast tool on your NinjaTrader 8 platform.
In a typical year of a stock price there are approximately 251 bars of data
and a crypto currencey has 365 bars, the difference is that the
cryptos are trading at the weekends.
When analysising a daily stock or future with this
price forecasting tool for NinjaTrader 8 the settings
would be 251, 502 and 753 for the settings of Back1, Back2, Back3.
If using it on crypto currencey such as Bitcoin BTC these are set to 365, 730 and 1095
as these products trade 24/7 with no missing bars each weekend.
Once these values have been inputted, the next step is to input how
many bars into the future to plot. The chart example below uses 70
bars.
It reads the last years change in percentage from the
current bar number -251 to calculate what happened last year on the
same date going forward 70 bars and plots it into the future.
Delightfully simple in its concept when one observes three
years all projecting in the same direction, one can see there is
possibly a cycle in action on the market.
On the same theme
as above, if the three plots are not going in the same direction and
there is no "Covid crash" or similar in the history then it will demonstrate the lack
of an annual cycle.
To make things even
more clear the date of the last three years analysed are highlighted
in the colour you choose which matches the colour of the projection
lines in the NinjaTrader 8 plot.
In character, in manner, in style, in all things, the supreme
excellence is simplicity.
Quote by Henry Longfellow.
If you are interested to see how this cycle pattern below runs over the next
few of weeks the name of the stock is in the link in the
email that is sent out after
SIGN UP
The image above is not a trade recommendation to buy or sell or
hold or stay out.
Backbars feature (not used in
this version)
This is set to 0 by default ( as in the chart above and below ) this is just a reserve input for future use.
The chart below of Tesla also indicates
some evidence that an annual cycle is
present. Although this time it is more varied in its magnitudes it
still clearly shows an upward tendancy. 
Ignored years feature
(Values between 0 and 3)
If there is a crash or extreme market anomoly which has
"dirtied the data" over the last few years. It can be ignored by
this feature.
Example: If the Covid crash was 2 years ago
you can set ignored years to 2 and the plot and forecast would
vanish.
The point is that this type of extreme market event is not
going to give a valid cyclical projection just as a Tsunami destroys
the observation of the seventh wave being the biggest.
The screenshot below
shows another positive annual cycle for the last three years on
Microsoft stock.
It is also clearly tells you that
considering taking
some partial profits around $410 might be something to add to the
planning of trades.
By now
the solution to the problems are becoming clear.
After
your purchase there will shortly be some optional add on upgrades to this
product as there are a lot of potential uses for it that I want to
test out.
The shot below of GLD (Gold) has it future set to 80 so the
plot has more reach into the future showing us to be very cautious.
This is a great example of what is discovered by using the
Tri-Spectral Forecast tool- CLARITY OF DECISIONS.
When your trading friend tells you of a plan to
short gold, you can casually mention that there is no cyclical
confluence evidence for this time of year. It is just random.
You would be right to say that. The red plot is up, the
white plot is down to sideways and the yellow plot is sharply down.
Indeed the future of gold can only be seen as volatile and chaotic
based on this evidence.
Options traders on the other hand may enjoy
buying into a near month strangle position which is a long put and a long call,
designed to capture a big move in either direction.
As the premium
cost is low, then theory is that the gains on the puts will be
greater than the loss of the calls and vice versa if it goes the
other way.
They could quite reasonable see the evidence for a big move in either
direction.
Looking
for annual cycles in Gold futures during June leads to the discovery
that there arent any.
All these evidences can be useful to
avoid making bad trading decisions as the chart clearly shows this
time of year can lead to a big drop in Gold or a big rise in Gold,
or a sideways non event in Gold. 
Some
real and genuine examples of annual cycles that you will find with
the Tri-Spectral Forecast tool in stocks
The directors selling some of their
stocks. This is a very real opportunity
if the trade is carefully researched in advance.
Company
directors ( in some companies ) are often not allowed to sell any stock until after the
year end or quarterly results are announced.
This is often the exact
same date each year and the news might show excellent results followed by
a brief and large move up, and often within the space of just a few
minutes the price will
start selling off very hard with a key type
reversal bar.
Moves like this take the public by surprise.
You on the other hand will be ready for it having seen the
projections clearly in advance.
This director
selling is often enough to completely reverse an uptrend as they are
the
big shareholders in the game to make money, likely they will be the
ones who buy back stock at a lower
price on another predictable cycle date
which is caused by "date of trading rules for directors".
Seasonal trends
in stocks can be related to the "Christmas rally" where shops have
booming profits in the run up to Christmas, there are seasonal
trends in the form of holidays, weather,
temperature or regular
annual events.
Dividend Payments: Dividend-paying companies
typically have specific dates for dividend distributions, which can
cause predictable cycles around those dates.
Annual Shareholder
Meetings: Companies hold annual shareholder meetings on fixed dates,
which can generate interest and potentially affect stock prices.
Product Launches: The introduction of new products or services
by a company on specific dates can create anticipation and impact
stock performance.
Industry Conferences: Significant industry
conferences or events held annually can drive attention to specific
stocks or sectors during those periods.
Regulatory Filings:
Filing deadlines for regulatory reports, such as 10-K or 10-Q
filings, can create patterns in stock movement as investors react to
the disclosed information.
Index Rebalancing: When stocks are
added or removed from prominent market indices, it can influence
trading activity and stock prices around the rebalancing dates as
institutions have to
buy these stocks for pension funds etc, this
method requires care however as being demoted or promoted does not
happen every year.
Options Expiration: Expiration dates for
options contracts can lead to increased trading volume and potential
price movements in the underlying stocks.
Seasonal Trends: Some
industries or stocks may have seasonal patterns influenced by
factors like holidays, weather, or specific events.
Economic
Data Releases: Key economic indicators or reports, such as
employment data or GDP figures, released on specific dates can
impact overall market sentiment and individual stock performance.
The chart below of Tullow oil PLC shows three plots going
in the same direction which indicates some evidence that an annual
cycle is present.
This time it is bearish, possibly resulting
from lower oil demand during mild weather.
It can be clearly
seen that the cyan plot is less trustworthy than the white and green
plots simply because of the time it occurred.
Basis of this it would be
very wrong to assume a drop down to 10.81 is a serious possibility
rather than a very remote one.
The ease of determination of
which year is projecting which outcome shows clearly that the cyan
plot, is coming out of the back of the Covid crash and the oil
storage crisis.
With the distortion cababilities of past crashes causing
confusing cycle readings, this is a good example of where you might
engage Ignored years =3.
The beauty of the Tri-Spectral forecast is that it
gives a clear and realistic sense of what to expect from the future,
and this expectation is based on real historical data.
Similar to
predicting when the Swifts and Swallows will arrive in the UK after
spending the winter in Africa.
Typically they arrive at their
earliest in late March to early April, but in colder years they can
come as late as the latter part of May or the early part of June.
They are a good example of a repeating cycle which is very valid and
robust.
With careful use this
product
can transform an average trader into a better than average
trader as it offers a very simple method of forecasting the future
and filtering trades.
Important technical
points to be considered when using the Tri-Spectral forecast
Three years is the default amount loaded,
but you can see six years or nine years if you follow the guide below.
How to add more years
If a second version of this indicator is added with longer
Back1, Back2, Back3 values then it is simple to see six plots or
even nine plots if you have enough data loaded.
Doing this will add more
crudentials to the validity of the observed results. When doing this
on stocks the values of 1004 (251 days x 4) 1255 ( 251 x 5) and 1506
can be used.
If using on a crypto currency then you can use 365 x 4
= 1460 for Back1 and 365 x 5 = 1825 for Back 2 and 365 x 6 = 2190
for Back3.
This powerful example below clearly shows you at a glance
in a matter of seconds,
that Ashtead group PLC in five out of the six years over the next 130 bars were higher
and only the yellow year of 2018 was down.
This method of
technical analysis speaks a very clear message indeed.
Chart types for the Tri-Spectral
forecast
This product works on daily charts of the types, Line,
Candlesticks, Bars of HLC, OHLC but other types of chart will cause
invalid readings to the plots due to not being one bar per day.
If this product is used on minute or hourly
charts the data will make no sense as it looks back a number of
bars, instead of using the date.
Margin width to the right side of the last price
There is a setting called
right side margin in
NinjaTrader 8 which you can locate as follows. Right click on the chart
background > Properties > Right side margin.
After
loading the indicator you can drag the chart over to see more of the
plot if needed.
Set this
value larger until you can see the entire future plot, this will
vary depending on the future setting you have used. Once it is set
you can select different charts and it will automatically use the
correct same settings.
Please note this varies a lot based on how much zoomed in or out the
chart is and smaller numbers can be used when zoomed out than when
zoomed in.
Annual cycles which are found in
commodities are shown below
Crop Planting and Harvesting: Agricultural commodities such as
corn, wheat, and soybeans have specific planting and harvesting
seasons, which can create cyclical patterns in supply and demand.
Weather Patterns: Weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts,
or seasonal rainfall, can impact commodity prices and create
"fairly" predictable cycles (but not exact as with the Swallows)
OPEC Meetings: For oil and petroleum-related commodities, OPEC
(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meetings and
decisions on production quotas can influence prices.
Inventory Reports: Regular reports on inventory levels, such as the
weekly crude oil inventory report in the United States, can affect
commodity prices.
Mining Production Reports: For metals and
minerals, periodic reports on mining production and output can
impact supply and prices.
Seasonal Demand: Certain
commodities, like natural gas for heating or gasoline for summer
travel, experience seasonal fluctuations in demand that can affect
prices.
Global Economic Events: Economic indicators, such as
GDP growth, interest rate decisions, or geopolitical events, can
impact commodity prices worldwide.
Commodity Futures Expiration: Expiration dates of commodity futures
contracts can lead to increased trading activity and potential price
volatility.
Maximum settings and troubleshooting.
Backbars setting = 0-1 ( not used in this
version so just leave it as 0 )
Maximum future setting = 200
Maximum back
setting = 150
The other values back1, back2 and back3 have to
be inputted with care so that back2 is double the value used in
back1, and back3 is triple the value used in back1.
Date of the previous year highlighting is not
the exact date of today?
This is because of irregular distribution of weekends and
leap years. Another reason for this could be due to looking at
charts on Saturday or Sunday.
You can adjust the Back1, Back2, Back3 by up to + or - 3
to line them up perfectly in some years but may only get them within
2 bars of the right date.
The reason is simply because Jan
1st is not Monday by default, if it was then it would be a simple
job for the programming.
Once set up, save as default and it
will be as close to on the ball as possible for the whole year.
For this product there is a members only offer to get discounted trials
on other PTS products, follow the link below for details.
The help and advice of members is valuable to me. Have a suggestion? Send it in!
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