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Precision Probability Index for NinjaTrader7 and NinjaTrader 8

Precision Probability Index Cac 40 futures

This is a complex product: The design features of which are unusual and require careful study to understand

The Gold Version comes with two types of strategy and indicator for advanced users

    Signal line crossing strategy ( Generates trade on the crossing of the signal line on the main plot shown above )
    Level cross over strategy ( Generates trades on the cross of the level of probability you specified ( default is the crossing of 50% )
    Dead spot feature to reduce whipsaw and over trading if required ( this is done by removing the middle point ) EG buy above 50.1 sell below 49.9
    The Indicator shows exact percentage probability of one moving average being above another in the number of bars future specified
    Locks onto the big trends thus keeping you in the good trades, while getting out of bad trades quickly
    Can be used to trade long positions only or short positions only or both long and short.
    Practically infinitely optimizable to fit any situation that you require with 6 optimizable user inputs.
    Works well on very short term real time charts and longer term charts with equal efficiency

Methods of usage

   The indicator can be used as a confirmation tool to enhance your own strategies profitability
   Know exactly what the odds are of the market rising or falling
   Observe the crossing of the signal line on the main plot to warn when the probabilities are moving
   As a risk calculation aid to know the odds of your trade going in your favor in X number of bars into the future
   With a distorted exaggeration factor one can use it as a binary trend indicator ( Ranging from 0 to 100 )
   An excellent divergence indicator giving reliable signals

Explanation of how it works

    The indicator computes the exact mathematic probability in percentage terms of a slow moving average being above a faster moving average in a certain     period into the future. This produces a sinusoidal plot as shown in the photos.

The settings used allow incredible versatility of uses. A smoother is provided on the main plot which irons out the false and useless wiggles and this is user adjustable of course.

There is a signal line which can be shown or hidden depending on preference and useful trade signals can be generated when the main plot crosses above or below the signal line plot.

Other signals can be generated by the cross above or below 50%. Here also this is configurable to compensate for bullish or bearish technical set ups. The default value is 50% but you can set it to buy above 51% or 50.0002% and sell below 51% or 50.0002%.

Dead spots are can be created simply by leaving a gap between the buy above input and the sell below input. EG Buy above = 50.04% sell below = 49.96% gives a symmetrical Long-Short strategy with a dead spot of 0.08 wide. The concept of this dead spot feature is designed to reduce over trading at points of near equilibrium market conditions.

You can skew the dead spot to any level you wish, for example if you are bullish of the market you might like to buy sooner and sell later, so you can find the mid point of 49% and set buy above to 49.02% and sell below to 48.98%. Huge flexibility can result from doing this. 

In addition there is also an exaggeration factor which distorts the volatility component of the model to allow exaggerated readings, the reason for this is to enable Precision Probability Index to function as a binary trend indicator, or as an accurate probabilistic computer, and various mutation in between these.

            Precision Probability Index comes in three versions to suit your requirements the table below shows the features of each

                               This product has been tested by NinjaTrader staff and has passed their testing procedures

Included Features

    Indicator   Long only, Short only and both Strategy  Fixed point cross Strategy  Signal-Line cross Strategy



Chart below: E-Mini SP500 Futures 10 minutes

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

Notice the bearish divergence that validates the sell signal which occurs afterwards

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PPI for NT

Chart below: CAC 40 Futures 1 minute chart

Precision Probability Index shows the signal line plot enabled and trades can be taken either by the crossing of the lines

 or by the crossing of the 50% line.

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Chart below: CL 2 Renko bars

Precision Probability Index works on any chart type in the Ninja Trader platform, includin the Renko type below.

Here you can see the "above below strategy" giving timely trades on the CL light crude oil futures

Precision Probability Index on Renko chart

Chart below: CL Futures 60 minutes

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

Notice how well the strategy stays short during the volatile downtrend when many other strategies would be shaken out

Chart below: GBP-USD 15 Minutes

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

The slow average is set to 100 and the fast average is set to 80 and Bars futures = 100

Chart below: DC Milk futures Daily chart

Precision Probability Index stays long from 5.30 to 16.45 in a signal trade

Did you notice the bearish divergence that occurs before the sell signal?

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Chart below: EUR-USD 10 Minutes

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the signal line

Chart below: CHF-JPY 10 Minutes

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the signal line 

In the image below you can notice the signal line smoothing is increased to 30, this helps to reduce whipsaws and over trading on a noisy data series


Chart below: Dax Futures FDAX Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the signal line 

Below the long period is reduced to 12 and short period is 9, Bars futures is set to 3, this gives a faster response on longer time frames charts


Chart below: NDK Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the signal line 

Bars futures set to 3, Long period = 12, short period =9


Chart below: GBP-AUD Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

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Chart below: GBP-USD Daily

Precision Probability Index is used as to trade the crossing of 50%

Small losing trade is shown in between two large winners

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Chart below: ^XAU Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

The slow average is set to 40 and the fast average is set to 30, catching an enourmous short trade

Notice again just before the last buy signal there is a bullish divergence forwarning a possible trend change

Chart below: GBP-USD Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

The slow average is set to 60 and the fast average is set to 50 and Bars futures = 20

Chart below: SRE Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the 50% line

Even though the up trend is very messy and volatile, PPI stays in long mode  for about 2 years ( lower plot )

The upper plot shows a shorter length PPI which would be used for trading the minor moves

Chart below: Dax Futures FDAX Daily

Precision Probability Index is used to trade on the crossing of the signal line 

As a rule of thumb the short period can be set to between around 10% and 50% less than long period

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      FAQ for dummies 



Which markets can PPI be used on?



 Stocks, Futures, Forex, ETF's, Indices, Bonds


Red pepper prices seem to have bottomed out------------->

 that has prices in your charts

Including vegetable prices you input yourself




When will the new version of Trading IQ Game be released?




Work in progress now----->


Estimated March-April 2016



How do I find my NinjaTrader7 machine id?



Go to Control centre, click on help, about, and your machine ID is the 3rd line from the top, you can copy and paste this into your Paypal order when you purchase. 



What happens when my license expires? Are there any obligations to me?



You will do very well to live more than 100 years after you purchase it

If you live to be 118 you will see this message expiration of license----->





FREE and paid Systems and Indicators for Tradestation MultiCharts, MetaTrader4  and NinjaTrader, detailed articles on trading systems, trend following, risk control analytics, optimization, optimal trade size formulas, online calculators, FREE to play Trading IQ Game with massive prizes from our two sponsors NinjaTrader and MultiCharts, tutorial videos, expert trader videos, no nonense content that does exactly as it is described...Time is running out... Credit availability is drying up....US National debt to be equal to 35% of the entire worlds GDP in 3 years....33% of all USA tax revenues will be required just to make the INTEREST PAYMENTS on the collosal national debt...... Eventually the US will have no option other than to print money or default on their debt repayments...... US Dollars will likely cease to be the reserve currency of the world........Stimulus is running out, the Federal reserve has fired all its bullets and the only options left are to print more money or to default on the debt payments.....The problem is infinitely worse than in 1929 due to the added problem of this huge government debt...... In 1929 the USA still had a positive trade surplus and a manufacturing based economy..... In 2011 the USA will have no such resources to fall back on........The two most likely scenarios are both likely to lead to disaster......Hyper-Inflation at 40%+ or Deflationary implosion....... Either of the two possibilities will lead to huge moves in the worlds financial markets........Trading of these massive moves could be the only way out..........Wise proffessional traders have already started building huge dollar short posistions in anticipation of the debacles to come.....Many people will suffer as a result of the irresponsible un-elected Federal reserve operatives..........Many more people will lose their homes......Millions of jobs will be lost......Those who are unprepared will become impoverished in ways that they could never imagine.....What is your strategy to trade these violent market trends?.........ARE YOU  READY?

Precision Trading Systems is partnered with MultiCharts and part of the NinjaTrader Ecosystem

  • Products are provided for both these platforms.
  • Our partners also sponsor the Trading IQ Game
  • Both these trading platforms are excellent


Precision Trading Systems is provider of the following



Precision Trading Systems is partnered  with MultiCharts.

 Precision Trading Systems is part of the NinjaTrader ecosystem.

 Systems and Indicators for Tradestation, NinjaTrader and MultiCharts.

 Top quality paid & FREE trading systems and indicators for most platforms

 Members can receive some paid products completely FREE

 Roger Medcalf is a vendor on the Tradestation App store

 Roger Medcalf is a vendor of product of MetaTrader 4  

  Free to play Trading IQ Game with generous PRIZES  from our sponsors.

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  • Futures, Forex and Stock trading contain substantial risk and are not for every investor.

  • An investor could potentially lose all or more of the initial investment.

  • Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or lifestyle.

  • Only risk capital should be used for trading

  • Only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading.

  • Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.




Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.



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