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MACH-TREND PLATINUM PRO, GOLD, SILVER, BRONZE FOR NINJATRADER7

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SITE ANNOUNCEMENT  FEBRUARY 2013

 

MACH-TREND PLATINUM PRO FOR NINJATRADER7 IS READY ON VALENTINES DAY 14TH FEB 2013

 

THE PERFECT GIFT FOR VALENTINES DAY..........we know everyone loves surprises.

 

  Box of expensive chocolates?

       

     Possible response ....

     I am leaving, you promised me a romantic dinner!

 

   Romantic dinner?

 

        Possible response ....

        I am leaving!  I wanted Mach-Trend for NinjaTrader7!

 

  Mach-Trend Platinum Pro?

  Ready on Valentines day

     14th February 2013

 

       Possible response ....

 

          Darling It is just what I always  wanted!

          It really locks on to the major trends!

 

--Disclaimer-

 

Your partner is unlikely to react in the way shown in the photo on the left  Precision Trading Systems accepts no responsibility for the affect on your relationship if you give Mach-Trend Platinum Pro as a Valentines day gift.

 

THE LOW FREQUENCY TRADING MODEL THAT ENABLES EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH RISK / REWARD RATIOS

 

I am sure most of you will agree with this comment, but please correct me if I am wrong.

The single most annoying factor about trend following is the following scenario...

 

Our trend system signals a buy, so we buy, up she goes and we move up our stops to lock in the big gains and we feel happy that the trend will go much higher, then the uptrend makes a sudden larger than usual deflection and takes out the stop making us enter into a short trade.

 

The trend then begins up again and our short stop gets hit with a small but highly annoying loser, and we go long again making another nice profit. The "pig in the middle short trade" may have reduced the profit overall taken out of this difficult up trend by as much as 50%.

 

 

How many times does this happen to traders? Very often I am certain.  I don't know about you, but with me it becomes my mission in life to figure out different ways to remove the "pig in the middle" short trade from an otherwise "nice up  trend".

 

We have all doubtless experienced this situation many times and this is known as a "whipsaw trade". The usual response by the trader is to use slower systems and wider stops to give trades more space to breath. Or sometimes the trader will make the mistake speeding up his model to try and catch every little twist and turn, which results in a nightmare commission eating system which just over trades, making the brokers richer and the trader impoverished..

 

 

A conversation with Ed Seykota about this dilemma spawned his memorable comment, "To prevent whipsaws, stop trading"

Reading between the lines of this comment, what he meant to say was he has had this problem many times, and nothing can be done about other than to stop trading altogether.

 

Whilst this statement is very valid, in the sense that removing whipsaw completely is virtually impossible, there are many things we can do to reduce it.

 

Mach-Trend is designed with this task in mind:

 

Using it can often it reduces whipsaws as much as 30% and in certain nice trending markets it can often achieve a 100% whipsaw reduction..

 

 

Rather than just slowing down a system, today's super fast computing speed enables us to make millions of calculations in the blink of an eye, so putting this new found speed and technology to good use Mach-Trend has reduced the problem considerably.

 

 

How does it work?

 

Mach-Trend first of all is monitoring a special trend algorithm and monitoring the urgency of the price action within the trend. In simple terms it is constantly buzzing away asking "Is this reversal going anywhere, is it serious".  Its job is to follow instructions to stay on board the trend unless something really gives it hard evidence to reverse its position.

 

The key is to use intelligence in the code, instead of just making it desensitized to small movements. It has some real difference to the usual filters and is very robust in most  market conditions that will be encountered.

 

 

How does it affect system ratios?

 

Mach-Trend is a high performance system when applied correctly to high beta markets.

The risk reward ratios it can achieve are not often found in regular trend following models and as the trading frequency is very low it is capable of riding some extremely difficult to read trends in an effortless manner.

 

In today's volatile and robotic noise ridden markets a trend following system can be considered quite good if it can achieve 35-40% wins and 2.2 to 2.7 : 1 risk / reward ratios.

 

Mach-Trend is capable of completely blowing these "industry standard" ratios out of the water

 

NinjaTrader system report below.

 

In this example when applied to volatile stock, Mach-Trend achieves 48% winning trades and a 24.71 risk reward ratio

 

Over a period of 15 years Mach-Trend completed only 31 trades but managed very well to lock onto to all the major winning trends.

 

( Commissions are not included in this test, however with only 31 trades it becomes of very low significance)

 

 

How does it perform on more "ordinary" markets?

 

Mach-Trend is a very clever system which when applied to dull markets generally behaves itself very well.

 

However a trader must understand that to achieve exceptional ratios, one must find exceptional markets to apply systems too.

I have always tried very hard to explain the importance of market selection as it is of paramount importance to get good results, many people with intelligence bordering on the genius level have not understood me on this point, and the more I think about it the more incredulous it seems.

 

A word of advice: To catch more fish, go where the fish are. To catch more trends, go where the trends are.

 

Example of a "typical non trending stock" optimization GOOG

 

Mach-Trend applied to Google stock on daily data since 2005. This stock can never be defined as one having good trending action as it is traded by every man and his dog, every mans sisters dog and every mans dogs puppies.

 

Such popularity causes excessive  NOISE and PERTURBATION which makes it score very low on the list of trend follower friendly markets.

 

Doing a course test with only length and delay being optimized the following parameters showed the highest profits.

 

Length 33, Delay 20 ( note this delay value is very very high) which illustrates just how much "noise" is present in Google stock price, a more suitable market would show better results with a much lower delay value usually  around 2 to 6.  

 

In this test skew direction is not optimized and value was set to 0.

 

Guess how many trades in 7 years?

 

Your broker will really hate you for using this system as you wont be needing to listen to his annoying nagging voice

 

"Hello Sir I advise you take some profits now prices are high"    Now you know what to tell him....you do know right?

 

He will make very little commissions from you if you use Mach-Trend, and after all it is your money so why give it all away to your greedy broker?

 

 

Example of a "typical stock" optimization GOOG

 

Mach-Trend found most joy using a low frequency and did only 7 trades in 7 years.

The profitable winning trades were 57% and the risk reward ratio was an astounding 14.85 : 1

 

See report below.

 

( Commissions are not included in this test, but with only 7 trades you know that dealing costs will amount to peanuts )

 

 

 

Why only 7 trades?

 

Mach-Trend has a setting called "delay" which casts a stroke of genius into its algorithm. 

I was very pleased when I thought of this idea as it adds a very important logical argument to this model which enhances its performance considerably.

 

Delay in this test  above is set to 20,and length was set to 33.

 

To help you understand what this setting means it is best explained in graphical form show in the four charts below.

Delay 20 Length 33 Delay in this 7 year test gives 7 trades.

Delay 15 Length 33 Delay in this 7 year test gives 16 trades.

Delay 10 Length 33 Delay in this 7 year test gives 26 trades.

Delay 0 Length 33 Delay in this 7 year test gives 58 trades.

 

Clearly you can now understand that increasing delay reduces trading F ( F = Frequency )

 

Mach-Trend can be adjusted to trade more or less frequently by using the delay feature. The greater the delay setting used the more space your trade will be given while the trend is "in no mans land" or "undefined" or what most would call "un-clear price action".

 

This feature is a key part of the flexibility of Mach-Trend which helps you keep on a trend during those days when everyone is in a panic and making mistakes, This keeps you away from the noise and erratic movements common in the choppy noisy markets of today.

 

 MACH-TREND SKEW FEATURE CAN BE SET TO BIAS  LONG OR SHORT

 

Introducing the skew direction feature

 

Mach-Trend can be adjusted to take long trades earlier or later than usual and the same for short trades.

 

Often a system is built with a "symmetrical construction", which means that no bias is given to either direction.

 

This is not the case with Mach-Trend. If one perceives that a bull market is in phase, it is obvious that taking short trades too easily will result in lower profits as the market will just resume its up=trend after a small sell off . The reverse is true in a bear market where one does not want to get long on every short covering rally only to see the market resume plummeting action after you bought it.

 

The solution to provide asymmetric trade timing is to engage the skew feature.

The simplest way to ensure you understand this is to show you some visual examples.

 

Skew direction feature = 0

Length 30

 

First demonstration is of Mach-Trend below has NO BIAS toward early short entry or long entry ( Default setting for general use )

 

 

MACH-TREND WITH A LONG TRADE BIAS ( SKEW VALUE =  -NEGATIVE )

 

Skew direction feature = -5

Length 30

 

Mach-Trend in the example below has skew set to -5 which means it will have a bias toward buying. Notice how the major trend is highlighted earlier.

 

 

Skew direction feature = -10

Length 30

 

Mach-Trend in the example below has skew set to -10 which takes long trade earlier still and is much later to enter a short trade. ( These settings would be used if you perceive a strong bull market to be underway)

 

 

MACH-TREND WITH A SHORT TRADE BIAS ( SKEW VALUE =  +POSITIVE )

 

Skew direction feature = +2

Length 30

 

Mach-Trend in the example below is set to skew + 2 which give its a bias to take short trades earlier and take long trades later. ( This setting would be used if a bear market was in progress)

 

 

Skew direction feature = +6

Length 30

 

Mach-Trend in the example below is set to skew + 6 which give its a bias to take short trades earlier and take long trades later. ( This setting would be used if the user perceived a bear market was in force )

 

Clearly you can see below as the uptrend slows down at the end of 2010 Mach-Trend attempts to go short three times  until catching the real sell off on the fourth try.

 

 

 

 

  • Perfect gift for Valentines day!
  • More useful than other typical Valentines gifts

 

  • It really locks on to the major trends!
  • Simple to use
  • Four versions from beginner to pro
  • Robust intelligent system
  • Exceptionally high risk / reward ratio

 

How does it affect F?

 

F = Trading frequency, and high F values can kill a good system stone dead.

 

The larger profit we get relative to commissions and spreads the better off we are. Over trading for a few ticks, will mean profit to cost ratios fall away so far that even if we trade well we don't make anything.

 

 

Black holes in trading

Stephen Hawking IQ 160+

 

Stephen Hawking has long been warning us of the dangers of black holes, and who am I to disagree with him? 

He talked of their existence long before anyone had ever seen one, and when the first one appeared on the hubble telescope the whole world realised he was a genius and not a madman as most critics had assumed.

 

Hawking apparently bet a years subscription of Penthouse magazine with his friend Kip Thorne, that a black hole would not be found. Hawking's bet was lost and Penrose collected the magazines.

 

Hawking got the black hole guru status, so it was win-win for him.

 

(F) consumes your profits just as the black hole consumes a star

A black hole consuming a star

 

It now become obvious how important it is to reduce F ( frequency ) as we can see the number of trades has drastically fallen, and therefore the money we give to the black hole is reduced.

 

What I refer to as the black hole are dealing costs, time, data costs etc.  Yes time, as high frequency models require much more time and attention.

 

The less money that gets poured into the greedy all consuming black hole, then better it will be for us.

 

I hope this has illustrated the point about (F) Frequency killing trading profits.

 

 

 

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That Black hole in your trading account is your brokerage commissions

 

 By reducing F by such a huge amount, traders can now enjoy the luxury of making money for    themselves instead of just making their brokers richer with commissions from over frequent trading systems. This statement is particularly true of day traders of futures markets.

 

It is a horrible fact that brokers grab roughly half the value of your account each year in costs.

 

 Mach trend will be able to save your account going the same way as 90% of losing traders.

 

It is widely know that 90% of traders lose money

 

Mach trend is here to help you change that horrific statistic.

 

 

  • Precision Mach-Trend your trend friend

  • Specially designed to lock onto the trend

  • Reduces F cost by huge amounts

  • Intelligent algorithms reduce whipsaw

  • Simple to use

  • Suitable for professionals and intermediates

  • Adjustable formula to suit your style

 

 

Choose your Mach-Trend package from beginner to advanced there are four versions to to suit your expertise level

 

Mach-Trend

Indicator plot Paint bar Variable period  Delay Skew adjustment Strategy

5% rule - Short exit

Platinum

YES YES YES 0 - 300 YES 0 to 20 YES -6 to +10 YES YES
Gold YES YES YES 0 - 100 YES 0 to 10 YES -3 to +5 YES YES
Silver YES YES YES  0 - 75 YES 0 to 6 YES -2 to +2 NO NO
Bronze YES YES YES  0 - 50 YES 0 to 3 NO NO NO

 

 

 

Explanation of Mach-Trend platinum pro for NinjaTrader7 special features

 

Paint bar

After the Mach-Trend paint bar is added to a chart in NinjaTrader 7  the chart bars or candles will highlight to indicate changes in trend, basis of the Mach-Trend algorithm. The user can configure the colours to suit their preferences.

Variable period

After the Mach-Trend paint bar, indicator or Mach system is added a chart in NinjaTrader 7 the user can configure the period required to suit their preferences. Shorter periods will produce more trend changes than longer periods.

When this feature is used in Mach Trend Platinum pro and GOLD, the user can optimise performance of Mach trend to make greatest profits.

Indicator plot

After the Mach-Trend indicator plot is added to a chart in NinjaTrader 7 the plot will display over the chart and when the trend changes direction the indicator will move up or down and the plot colour will change to indicate trend direction basis of the Mach-Trend algorithm. The user can configure the colours required to suit their preferences.

Mach-Trend Platinum Pro Strategy 

After the Mach-Trend system (Strategy)  is added to a chart in NinjaTrader 7, there will be arrows showing where the trend has changed direction,  the system can be optimised for period, delay, and skew for optimal performance. The system can be set to long trades only, short trades only or both.

The 5% rule function for short trade exits is included as a TRUE or FALSE input which are displayed as 1 = True and 0 = False

This is an optional choice for the user to configure if required. 

Long only - Short only - both!  

The system can be set to long trades only, short trades only or both. This is to cater for trader who have the fear of short selling, this is not unusual as a trader with no stop can suffer a potentially unlimited loss with a losing short trade that goes wrong. Using stops is a simple cure for this drama!

 

Advanced signal trend skew feature

After the Mach-Trend Platinum pro or Gold Strategy  is added to a chart in NinjaTrader 7, the user can alter the skew function which is one of the optimizable inputs provided. This adds a "Trend skew" feature to the Mach-system which enables the user to make the system biased in the chosen direction.

For example, if there is a strong bull market in progress, then engaging in short selling is generally a losing game. Henceforth if the skew feature is set to s negative minus number, then the system will enter long much easier than it would enter a short trade. This feature is also reversible for use in bear markets. This feature appears as an INPUT value within the strategy and can be optimised for best performance.

 

Advanced signal delay feature

After the Mach-Trend Platinum Pro or Gold Strategy is added to a chart in NinjaTrader 7 the user can alter the delay function which is one of the optimizable inputs provided. This adds a "Trend lag" feature to the Mach-system which enables the user to make the system faster or slower without changing the actual period input.

In simple terms, creating a dead-zone in a trading system where it the trend is neither quantified as up or down, allows breathing space for your position. The system will stay in its previous mode of long or short while inside this dead-zone and will not change direction until the trend has changed direction in a quantifiable manner.

The user can further reduce commissions and trading F by increasing delay, or speed up the system if the price action is reasonable clean without fake signals. 

 

5% rule short exit feature

After the Mach-Trend system (Strategy)  is added to a chart in NinjaTrader 7 the user can engage the 5% rule input feature which will close out a short trade once it has fallen by 95% after which the system will stay "flat" until the next long or short signal is observed.

This feature would not often be activated in actual trading apart from cases such as the 2008 decline or in stocks such as Enron. This input has a 1 or 0  field in the strategy.

The 5% rule was coined by option writers who had a preference to exit short options once the profit had exceeded 95% of the paid price as there was little reward and a lot of risk if they chose to hold onto them instead.

 

 

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Above:

Mach-Trend Platinum Pro Strategy avoids getting a long trade while all the volatile price action was leaping around. When the evidence supported a new uptrend it jumped on board and locked onto the trend.

The result is obvious: Two massive winning trades

 

 

 

Above:

Mach-Trend Platinum Pro Strategy stays in a long trade from $3.25 for almost 3 years and exits at $25.90

Probably your broker would have called you about 50 times during this period asking if you want to take a profit.......you know what to tell him

 

 

 

Above:

Mach-Trend Platinum Pro Strategy tracks Forex trends very nicely too. Two trades giving over 400 pips profit in a few weeks.

 

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FAQ for dummies

Question:

 

I wonder if you can tell me the best timeframes to use Mach-Trend platinum pro?

 

Answer:

 

As with most systems and indicators reliability of signals is improved with increases in data sampling frequencies.

 

E.G. A 15 minute chart would tend to give more reliable signals than a 1 minute chart and a daily chart would tend to be more reliable than 4 hourly chart. See the example above for a better idea.

 

Looking for the holy grail?    Its turns out to be a stopwatch ---->

 

Question:

 

Which one of your systems is the best?

Why are some of your systems more expensive than others?

 

Answer:

 

Sir, your question is very difficult to give a precise answer to.

Consider If I asked you the following..

 

Which food is best? 

Which car is best?

Which shoes are best?

Which movie is best?

 

See video----->>>>>>>

 

The problem of the casual "why question" explained by the great mind of

Richard Feynman nuclear physics expert.

Question:

 

When will Mach-Trend be ready?

 

 

Answer:

 

When I get a round to it. -----> February 14th 2013 it will be released.

 

February14th 2013

Question:

 

How do I find my NinjaTrader machine id?

 

Answer:

Go to Control centre, click on help, about, and your machine ID is the 3rd line from the top, you can copy and paste this into your Paypal order when you purchase. 

Question:

 

What happens when my license expires? Are there any obligations to me?

 

Answer:

You will get a notification message on you NinjaTrader7 platform showing expiry is coming soon. You can renew your license if you wish but are not obligated to do so.

This is the message you will see before expiration of license----->

 

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FREE and paid Systems and Indicators for Tradestation MultiCharts and NinjaTrader, detailed articles on trading systems, trend following, risk control analytics, optimization, optimal trade size formulas, online calculators, FREE to play Trading IQ Game with massive prizes from our two sponsors NinjaTrader and MultiCharts, tutorial videos, expert trader videos, no nonense content that does exactly as it is described...Time is running out... Credit availability is drying up...The cost of borrowing is gradually rising....US National debt to be equal to 35% of the entire worlds GDP in 3 years....33% of all USA tax revenues will be required just to make the INTEREST PAYMENTS on the collosal national debt...... Eventually the US will have no option other than to print money or default on their debt repayments...... US Dollars will likely cease to be the reserve currency of the world........Stimulus is running out, the Federal reserve has fired all its bullets and the only options left are to print more money or to default on the debt payments.....The problem is infinitely worse than in 1929 due to the added problem of this huge government debt...... In 1929 the USA still had a positive trade surplus and a manufacturing based economy..... In 2011 the USA will have no such resources to fall back on........The two most likely scenarios are both likely to lead to disaster......Hyper-Inflation at 40%+ or Deflationary implosion....... Either of the two possibilities will lead to huge moves in the worlds financial markets........Trading of these massive moves could be the only way out..........Wise proffessional traders have already started building huge dollar short posistions in anticipation of the debacles to come.....Many people will suffer as a result of the irresponsible un-elected Federal reserve operatives..........Many more people will lose their homes......Millions of jobs will be lost......Those who are unprepared will become impoverished in ways that they could never imagine.....What is your strategy to trade these violent market trends?.........ARE YOU  READY?

Precision Trading Systems is partnered with NinjaTrader and MultiCharts

 
  • Products are provided for both these platforms.
  • Our partners also sponsor the Trading IQ Game
  • Both these trading platforms are excellent

 

 

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Page created on February 12th 2013